This blog is not updated regularly. See www.brisbane-apartment.com for more regular updates.
Some popular posts:
Overall, it seems like a dangerous time to buy off-the-plan in Queensland.
You will often see newspaper reports that discuss rising or falling house and apartment prices by reference to the median sales price for a particular period. For example, see this recent report from REIQ. The median price is the middle price of all the properties sold in the defined period.
If you select a different length of time to measure the median price, you get a different result. For example, according to REIQ, the median sales price for Brisbane apartments (all apartments sold in the Brisbane local government area, not just downtown Brisbane) for January 2012 to March 2012 was $387,750. The median for April 2011 to March 2012 was $395,000.
The median is not the average price.
For example, if there were 5 sales in the period, for $2, $9, $1000, $1002 and $6408, then the median is $1,000. The average for the example above is $1484.) See also here and here.
The statistics only look at the properties that were actually sold in the period. If the median changes, it does not necessarily follow that the value of any particular property has changed. For example, if in one quarter, there are many two bedroom apartments that are sold, and in the next quarter, there are mostly one bedroom apartments that are sold, then the median price is likely to decrease. If a new off-the-plan development settles in the period, then the median is likely to increase for that period and decrease for the next period.
So how reliable are the recent REIQ statistics? I had a look at a number of the more larger, upmarket and top end apartment buildings, and there are no or few reported sales for the relevant period (January 2012 to March 2012). For example:
RP Data reported recently that Brisbane apartments in 2011 lost suffered a capital loss of 6.5% (when looking a medium sales prices of apartments that actually sold in 2011).
Let's assume Mr Investor purchased a Brisbane apartment on 31 December 2010 as an investment paying $485,000. Assume that he borrowed 80% of the purchase price, including stamp duty. Stamp duty is $14,850. So the total purchase cost, including legal fees and bank fees, is just over $500,000. Thus, Mr Investor put in $100,000 of his own money, and borrowed $400,000.
That apartment, if it went down 6.5% in value, is now worth $453,475. That is a capital loss of $46,525.
So Mr Investor has had an actual capital loss of over 46% in one year. That is the risk of leveraging. A small decrease in value means a large capital loss where there is a leverage situation. (If Mr Investor had to sell, he would pay over $10,000 in real estate agent fees, making his capital loss even greater.) If values decrease further, Mr Investor will be completely underwater. I suspect that there are many apartment owners in Brisbane who have little or no equity left, especially those who have purchased off-the-plan in the last 5 years and paid too much. The only saving grace is for foreign investors who may make a profit on exchange rate gains.
Here are the recent reported apartment sales in the larger Brisbane downtown buildings. Most of these sales closed in the period from late October to early December 2011.
Charlotte Towers
This blog has moved to www.brisbane-apartment.com.
Some popular posts include:
Recent Comments